Nebo mountain goat, archery
How many bonus points it took to draw this hunt in 2025, and your estimated chance at every point level.
368 residents applied for 11 permits (1 in 33.5 overall). Everyone with 18 or more points drew. At 17 points, 2 of 6 applicants drew bonus permits. The other 5 permits were drawn at random: an estimated 0.19% chance at 0 points, rising to 3.3% at 16 points.
Sure draw at 18+ points
No nonresidents applied for this hunt.
Compare every mountain goat hunt at your point level →
Odds by bonus points
Residents
| Bonus points | Applicants | Drew | Actual odds | Estimated chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | 1 | 1 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 18 | 3 | 3 | 1 in 1.0 | |
| 17 | 6 | 2 | 1 in 3.0 | |
| 16 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 15 | 12 | 0 | — | |
| 14 | 14 | 1 | 1 in 14.0 | |
| 13 | 9 | 0 | — | |
| 12 | 7 | 0 | — | |
| 11 | 21 | 1 | 1 in 21.0 | |
| 10 | 15 | 1 | 1 in 15.0 | |
| 9 | 21 | 0 | — | |
| 8 | 20 | 2 | 1 in 10.0 | |
| 7 | 21 | 0 | — | |
| 6 | 25 | 0 | — | |
| 5 | 28 | 0 | — | |
| 4 | 30 | 0 | — | |
| 3 | 23 | 0 | — | |
| 2 | 39 | 0 | — | |
| 1 | 28 | 0 | — | |
| 0 | 38 | 0 | — | |
| All | 368 | 11 | 1 in 33.5 |
Nonresidents
No applicants in this group.
Trends, 2024–2025
"Sure at" is the fewest bonus points where every applicant drew through the bonus pool that year.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 308 | 9 | 1 in 34.2 | 18 |
| 2025 | 368 | 11 | 1 in 33.5 | 18 |
Points for a sure draw: 18 in 2024, 18 in 2025. The bar has held steady; about 18 points should still be enough in 2026. Applicants rose 19% since 2024.
| Year | Applicants | Permits | Odds | Sure at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 765 | 1 | 1 in 765.0 | — |
| 2025 | 0 | 0 | — | — |
Applicants fell 100% since 2024.
How this draw works
Utah reserves half of each hunt's permits for the applicants with the most bonus points. The rest are drawn at random from everyone left, and each bonus point gives you one extra random number; your best number is the one used. Drawing a permit resets your points for that species to zero. Utah DWR's explanation.
About the estimated chance. Actual odds at a single point level jump around because only a few permits are drawn at random. The estimate applies the draw's own rules to this year's applicant pool. Across all 2025 Utah hunts, it predicts the number of permits drawn at each point range to within about 1%. Applicant numbers change every year, so treat it as a guide. How we check and estimate.
Other hunts in Nebo
- Mountain Goat, any legal weapon Mountain Goat · 892 applicants
- Limited-entry Buck Deer, muzzleloader Deer · 74 applicants
- Rocky Mountain Bighorn Sheep, any legal weapon Rocky Mountain Bighorn Sheep · 414 applicants