How the numbers work
Where the data comes from
Every figure comes from the Utah Division of Wildlife Resources' big game draw results, published after each year's draw (2025 results dated 2025-06-04). For each hunt, the report lists applicants and permits at every bonus point level from 0 up to 31 or 32, separately for residents and nonresidents. We use the 2023, 2024, 2025 reports: the latest year for odds, and all of them for trends and point creep.
How we check it
We publish a hunt only if its table passes every check:
- Every point level from the top down to 0 is present, for both residents and nonresidents.
- At every level, bonus permits plus regular permits equal the total.
- Every printed "1 in X" ratio matches applicants divided by permits.
- The rows add up exactly to the report's printed totals.
The report's text sometimes drops a number. When we can restore it and the totals then confirm the fix, we publish; 14 tables needed that in 2025. When Utah's own numbers disagree with each other, we hold the hunt back:
- DS6601 Desert Bighorn Sheep - Kaiparowits, East - Any Legal Weapon: nonresident 32 pts: ratio 13.0 does not match 7/1
- DS6608 Desert Bighorn Sheep - San Rafael, Dirty Devil - Any Legal Weapon: nonresident 32 pts: ratio 2.0 does not match 1/1
How the estimated chance works
Utah gives half of each hunt's permits to the applicants with the most bonus points. The other half are drawn at random, and each bonus point gives an applicant one extra random number. So at a given point level, your estimated chance is:
- 100% if everyone at your level drew through the bonus pool;
- otherwise, roughly random permits × (your points + 1) ÷ all random-draw entries, plus any bonus-pool share at your level.
Actual results at a single point level jump around because so few permits are random. The estimate smooths that out. To test it, we add up the estimated permits across every 2025 hunt and compare them with the permits actually drawn:
| Bonus points | Applicants | Estimated permits | Actual permits | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2 | 71,447 | 1,110 | 1,121 | -1.0% |
| 3-5 | 49,210 | 1,333 | 1,317 | +1.2% |
| 6-9 | 49,158 | 1,612 | 1,621 | -0.6% |
| 10-14 | 38,044 | 1,432 | 1,431 | +0.1% |
| 15+ | 42,167 | 2,032 | 2,033 | -0.1% |
Limits
- Estimates use last year's applicants. Pools grow and shrink, and point creep raises the bar each year.
- The report counts applicants per hunt; it doesn't show whether a hunt was someone's first or later choice.
- Only one limited-entry permit per species per year, so you can't add up chances across hunts.
Updates
We check Utah's site every week and publish new results as soon as they appear, usually in late May or early June.